:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
19/0332Z from Region 3964 (N06W62). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 18/2149Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/2004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/2020Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 791 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (22 Jan).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 234
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 235/235/235
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 200

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  011/012-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/20