:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2022 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/1415Z from Region 2930 (N21W45). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jan,
19 Jan, 20 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 628 km/s at 16/2127Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 17/0504Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/2102Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2021 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Jan, 20
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 114
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 114/110/108
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 096

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  016/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  010/010-006/005-007/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           10/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/25