Propagation & Space Weather Info Collected from Different Sources
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2021 Apr 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 16/1213Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/1558Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 16/1806Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr). III. Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Apr 077 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 076 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 015/020-015/018-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 65/50/50
Solar Images
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GOES-15 X-ray Image
NOAA/SWPC Boulder, CO -
SOHO EIT Fe XII 195 Å Image
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SDO AIA 4500 Å Image
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SOHO LASCO White Light Image (C2) of the Sun's Corona
LASCO Homepages
More solar/images: http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/shine/suntoday.html
Aurora
Geomagnetic activity nowcast (Finland)
Current magnetic activity level in northern and southern Finland + near real-time/images from aurora cameras:
http://aurora.fmi.fi/public_service/index.html
The Kjell Henriksen Observatory website at http://kho.unis.no/ contains aurora forecast up to one hour ahead in time.
DX Robot Gouda delivers aurora alerts via e-mail: http://www.gooddx.net/
Aurora alerts via e-mail for Finnish operators: revontulialertti
Solar Wind & Other Data
Map of the Latest 11m Spots from the CRX Cluster Network
Solar and auroral data: http://www.solarham.net
Propagation Tutorials
General Guidelines for Correlation of Propagation Indices to Actual HF Propagation Conditions
N0NBH's propagation tutorial (PDF)
NM7M: The Little Pistol's Guide to HF Propagation (PDF)
Propagation Broadcasts and Forecasts Demystified (PDF)
RSGB Propagation Studies Committee (Lots of info on different propagation modes.)
Understanding 10 (11) Meter Sporadic-E (Understanding ES or “short skip”)