:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2023 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
02/2242Z from Region 3323 (S07E45). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 465 km/s at 03/1108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
03/0533Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/0806Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 319 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jun,
05 Jun, 06 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 165
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun 165/160/160
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  008/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  011/015-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/05
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/05