:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 357 km/s at 23/1755Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
23/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 673 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 074
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 074/074/073
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  010/012-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/10