:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2019 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 437 km/s at 23/0115Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
23/0953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
23/1853Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Jul, 26
Jul) and quiet levels on day two (25 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 067
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  007/008-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/15