:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2024 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/0442Z from Region 3761 (S09W86). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 612 km/s at 26/0536Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 25/2328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 25/2110Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (28 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (29 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 176
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 170/165/165
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 186

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  014/018-007/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/35
Minor Storm           20/05/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/25/50