:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
14/1527Z from Region 3962 (N17E82). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan,
17 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 14/1716Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 14/1750Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/1724Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 402 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (15 Jan, 17
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (16 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 166
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 170/175/180
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 198

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  009/010-007/006-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/25