:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2026 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2026

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan,
17 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 568 km/s at 14/0945Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
14/2020Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/1433Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 9398 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jan), quiet levels on
day two (16 Jan) and active to minor storm levels on day three (17 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 127
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 130/132/128
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  008/008-006/005-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/40
Minor Storm           05/01/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/75