:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2024 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
13/0657Z from Region 3848 (N13W79). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 13/0330Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 13/0521Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1209Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 380 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Oct,
15 Oct, 16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 195
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 200/200/200
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  009/010-011/012-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor Storm           05/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/40/65