:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 22/1730Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0644Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 152 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (24 Sep) and unsettled levels on day three (25 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 072
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  008/010-010/012-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/40