:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2022 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/0812Z from Region 3040 (S14E02). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (27 Jun) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 760 km/s at 26/1230Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 26/0116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 25/2158Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1149 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Jun, 28 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 102
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 100/095/095
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  013/015-009/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/50/30