:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
21/1215Z from Region 4000 (N17E07). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 20/2107Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 20/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/1927Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 356 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 197
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb 195/190/185
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 193

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  005/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  006/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20