:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2022 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
05/0207Z from Region 3112 (N22E21). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (06 Oct) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 582 km/s at 05/1627Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/1628Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/1628Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2952 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Oct). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day one (06 Oct) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    55/50/35
Class X    25/15/10
Proton     20/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 161
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct 158/156/154
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  010/012-009/014-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/25
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/30/20