:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 789 km/s at 03/0557Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 03/1937Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 03/1937Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 02/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 524 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05
Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Apr). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Apr,
05 Apr, 06 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 178
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 178/176/176
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  013/018-017/020-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/20
Minor Storm           25/25/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/60/30