:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 Apr 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr,
28 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 593 km/s at 25/0334Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
24/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
24/2113Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 718 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Apr), quiet to active levels on day
two (27 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Apr 164
Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 170/170/165
90 Day Mean        25 Apr 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  014/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  007/008-013/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/30
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/50/45