:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2024 Apr 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
27/1235Z from Region 3654 (S08W23). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr,
30 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 27/1001Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 27/0612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
26/2141Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Apr 153
Predicted   28 Apr-30 Apr 140/135/135
90 Day Mean        27 Apr 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  012/015-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/25