:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2019 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 21/2016Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 21/1759Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/1719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 356 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 071
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  012/016-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/25